Three theories

There are mainly three theories about the reasons for the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia in discussion:

• The degrading economic situation as a consequence of the global-political changes in the 80′s in combination with the fragility of a multi-ethnic state in an area with a history of conflict made the incidents inevitable
• The nationalism of mainly the Serbs with their maximal demand for either the continuance of a Serb dominated Yugoslavia or a Rump Yugoslavia that includes all areas where Serbs live didn’t give leeway to a solution via negotiations
• The influences from outside, mainly the strength regained Germany who pushed for a quick recognition of the former republics without a codification of minority-rights in their constitutions provoked especially the Serbs with their dominant military power to go for a violent solution

The conflict as a predictable and avoidable development

Which ever evaluation seems to be the most plausible to you – and I personally think they all are applicable to a certain extend – at least in hindsight the conflict seems to be less an inevitable catastrophic event but more a disaster for anyone to see unfold.

The role of Europe

What strikes me most is, at least in the broader discussion, the disregard of Europe’s failure in her first mayor challenge in the aftermaths of the resolved cold war.

Europe was not able or willing:

• to speak with one voice in its foreign-policy as a political entity
• to alleviate the consequences of the economic upheavals in Yugoslavia as a economic power
• to uphold its proclaimed ideals as a community of values

The longtime consequences for Europe

Beside the humanitarian and financial costs as consequences of this miserable failure Europe seems not to be able to at least admit to its shortcomings let alone prepare to face coming problems.

A recipe for future disasters

A Europe that seems to be more preoccupied with its growth as a value in it self and forgetting about its original aims to build a community that allows for a peaceful together between and inside of its nations doesn’t give me hope for challenges to come.